The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has conceded that his pre-election polling projections failed to accurately predict the outcome of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary in the Ayawaso East Constituency.
In a post on his official Facebook page, Mr Dankwah acknowledged that his forecast for the closely contested primary did not align with the final results declared by the party. His pre-election model had projected Hajia Amina Adam to lead with about 54 per cent support among delegates, while Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, was expected to secure no more than 38 per cent.
“The just-ended NDC primaries in Ayawaso East handed me a defeat, but I will not issue any formal statement,” Mr Dankwah wrote.
He later assessed the performance of the candidates against his Model 1 projections, which carried a ±3 per cent margin of error.
According to his analysis, Mohammed Ramme’s nine per cent vote share fell within the upper limit of the predicted margin of error. However, Hajia Amina Adam underperformed, polling 41 per cent instead of the projected 50 per cent, a result that exceeded the model’s margin of error. Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, on the other hand, outperformed expectations by securing 45 per cent, four percentage points above the highest projection within the margin of error. The results for Dr Yakubu Azindow and Mohammed Najib Sani were also within the predicted ranges.
Mr Dankwah further hinted at the possible impact of campaign activities on the outcome, suggesting that factors beyond data and projections may have played a decisive role. “As for what influence what we saw had on the results, I leave it to you people. It took bribes to defeat science and data,” he stated.
The official results confirmed Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed as the NDC’s parliamentary candidate for the upcoming Ayawaso East by-election, which was triggered by the death of the sitting Member of Parliament, Mahama Naser Toure.
Mr Dankwah’s admission has reignited discussions about the reliability of pre-election polling, particularly in tightly contested internal party elections, where local dynamics, campaign strategies and last-minute developments can significantly shape outcomes.
