Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, says Baba Jamal is unlikely to secure more than 38% of the vote in the upcoming Ayawaso East NDC parliamentary primary, citing recent polling outcomes and prevailing voter sentiment.
Speaking on the findings, Mr Dankwah said Hajia Amina Adam is currently the clear frontrunner, polling about 54% support ahead of the contest scheduled for Saturday, February 7.
He explained that the data point to a wide and stable lead for Hajia Amina Adam, which is unlikely to be overturned before voting day.
“Even under the most favourable assumptions for Baba Jamal, the numbers still show a significant gap,” he said, adding that a dramatic shift in voter preference at this stage appears improbable.
Mr Dankwah further indicated that the projection carries a margin of error of about 3.2%, but stressed that this does not materially change the outcome of the forecast.
According to him, attempts by some individuals to challenge Hajia Amina Adam’s eligibility have failed to gain traction among both party members and delegates.
“When we asked NDC members whether it was wrong for Hajia to contest, 66% disagreed. Among delegates, 58% also disagreed,” he noted.
He concluded that these figures suggest a misreading of the political dynamics in Ayawaso East by those pushing narratives against her candidature.
